Horses exercise when the sun rises at Churchill Downs on Friday April 30, 2021 in Louisville, Kentucky. The 147th round of the Kentucky Derby is scheduled for Saturday, May 1st. (AP Photo / Charlie Riedel)
It’s the first Saturday in May and the field is set and there were 20 horses to bet on. They have to run a mile and a quarter, a winner who has to be determined shortly before sunset. NBC will be reporting live, and horses will break out of the gate at around 6:55 p.m.
On Friday afternoon, King Fury, who would have left Post # 16, got a fever after his morning gallop and was scratched by the derby.
Here’s a look at the remaining 19 entries, starting with the inside, mail No. 1 horse, well-known agenda. The Florida Derby winner is a legitimate competitor but needs to work out a good trip trying to navigate from a likely mid-pack position. Trainer Todd Pletcher added blinkers two starts back which improved the focus of Known Agenda and resulted in two formidable wins.
Like the King, he also has to work a trip out of the pace and prove he can win on a dirt surface can. His morning chances of winning are 50-1 if he comes out of hole # 2. Another 50: 1 listing is Brooklyn Strong, who just learned on Sunday that he was there because of the defect in the Caddo River, which saw a rise in temperature last Saturday. Costing only $ 5,000 as a two-year-old, it is ridden by Umberto Rispoli, who practiced his profession in his native Italy before moving to California. This will be the first derby for the horse’s human connections as Brooklyn Strong leaves third place.
Keepmeinmind will likely be forgotten from hole # 4. He may close late and also has a derby jockey and coach for the first time. He ran better as a two year old and didn’t keep up with some of the other submissions that have matured. Sainthood, coming out of gate number 5, could try to take the lead early. He may need divine intervention to win but has a win and 2 seconds in 3 starts.
O Besos is the « wise guy » horse from Post No. 6. He will come from far behind and could reach the top 3 with a clear trip. This wise writer would rather choose Mandaloun from Post # 7. He’s more of a stalking guy but may not like the extra distance. Medina Spirit initially sold for just $ 1,000 at a young age, but continues to take first or second place against high profile competition. When exiting hole # 8, he should be noticed early and possibly hang around late for a piece of wallet. Medina Spirit finished second to Rock Your World in the Santa Anita Derby and Rock Your World is 3 for 3. Hot Rod Charlie has been doing well lately and should be relegated from his 9th post. He has shown versatility by either running on or near the lead. He was last seen winning the Louisiana Derby on March 20. In that race he defeated Midnight Bourbon, who will exit gate # 10. Look for Midnight Bourbon to battle for the early lead with Hot Rod Charlie in midfield. Of those first ten posts, Known Agenda and Hot Rod Charlie have the best chance of wearing the garland of roses at the end of the day. However, I expect the winner to come from one of the ten outside entries, 14 or 15 to be precise.
Dynamic One has only won once in five starts but was the most respected of coach Todd Pletcher’s four Derby entries and pulled the 11th post. Helium is 3 for 3 lifetimes when it leaves the 12 hole. He last won the Tampa Bay Derby in early March and has been training well ever since. He beat horse # 13, Hidden Stash, by 3/4 length in that race. Number 13 is a stone cold seamstress and took a distant fourth place on April 3rd for promoting the essential quality of the Blue Grass Stakes.
Essential Quality is 5 for 5, has danced every dance and knows how to do wins. He was the 2020 Juvenile Eclipse Champion and leaves Post No. 14 as the colt to beat. His main competition seems to be right next to him in Post # 15: Rock Your World. He has won all three career starts in impressive fashion.
Rock Your World could be trying to set the early pace, or at least be close to the front line early. This almost black colt could win the best looking prize too. We could easily see its dark color next to the glossy gray coat from Essential Quality as they strained for the finish line at Churchill Downs.
King Fury would have been interesting from post # 16. He has won 3 out of 6, including Lexington on April 10 after a four month layoff. Look for him who may reappear in Preakness, the second leg of the Triple Crown, in two weeks’ time.
Highly Motivated was last seen necking a strong second place on Essential Quality in blue grass . He will wear # 17 but leave hole # 16 with King Fury’s late scratch. Highly Motivated is likely to be in midfield if his jockey does what his trainer Chad Brown prefers. His breeding suggests that the Derby distance of 1 1/4 mile might be just a little too big, otherwise I would consider him more seriously.
Super Stock carries the number 18. When he was born on May 10th. April won the Grade One Arkansas Derby, he was the beneficiary of a perfect stalking trip. While I don’t expect him to win, he could be late to finish in the top three.
Soup and Sandwich is the other gray to watch out for. It bears the number 19. When he last started in late March, he has two wins and a second place in Known Agenda in the Florida Derby. There’s a lot to like for this Campbell soup called whole blood, other than maybe its off-the-post position.
At least it shouldn’t be trapped along the rail and could be a good, albeit potentially wide, ride on the first corner working out. If your looking for a longshot piece, soup and sandwich might be your cup of tea.
Last one to load is Bourbonic # 20, which was a big disgruntled winner when it last appeared at the Wood Memorial was. He’s another closer and should have even longer chances this time around despite his win in the Wood pedestrian zone.
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