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After a breathtaking final of the French Open yesterday, attention is turning to grass pitches with ATP events this week in Halle and Queen’s Club. Dan Weston gives a preview of the action and looks for the betting angles …
« Matteo Berrettini, the top seed and tournament favorite at 5.95 / 1, expects the winner in round two and Murray would be a big serve against the Italian inferior. «
What a final we saw in Roland Garros yesterday, when Novak Djokovic came back from two sets behind and won in five sets against Stefanos Tsitsipas in an epic duel.
Djokovic is 2,285 / 4 to win Wimbledon in about a month and it would probably be quite brave to bet against the world number one who is adding to his Grand Slam collection at SW19.
Ahead of However, Wimbledon will have a number of warm-ups on the lawn over the next several weeks. This week there are 500 level tournaments in Halle (Germany) and Queen’s Club (London). But I want to make it clear – we don’t have any actionable turf data to judge expected player level. In an ideal world, I’d fast-forward a couple of weeks to the end of Wimbledon and get back to the rest of the hard court season!
We could use longer-term grass data, but this won’t exactly account for the improvement or decline in players, so is that is not a solution. Probably the best answer would be to use 12 month data for events in places with quick conditions, but this is still the best of a bad group when it comes to dealing with the situation. The best option is an observation letter for the next two weeks leading up to Wimbledon while we collect actionable grass pitch data.
With that in mind, I’ll be extremely reluctant to make recommendations over the next few weeks, but it always will in both events this week still give some fascinating discussion points.
In Halle Roger Federer returns – although he has withdrawn Roland Garros halfway – back on the tour and competes with Daniil Medvedev, Stefanos Tsitsipas and himself for the absolute favorite status between 5.04 / 1 and 6.05 / 1. Alexander Zverev and Andrey Rublev as well as Roberto Bautista-Agut complete the top 10 interest in the tournament, where there are no byes for the seeds in the first round – all players have to win five games to win the trophy. </ Federer was dragged into Medvedev's neighborhood, which looks pretty tricky. Ilya Ivashka, his opponent in the opening round, is a competent player, while a second-round match against Felix Auger-Aliassime and Hubert Hurkacz will be tough before Medvedev – a player who, like Federer, is prone to quick conditions – in the quarter. Tsitsipas theoretically has a much easier quarter and his half only owns Rublev in relation to the top ten opponents, while there are four top 10 players in the top half of the draw. Of course, we don't know how Tsitsipas will be affected by the fatigue and loss to Djokovic in the coming week and that's a huge question mark.
Another player returning to the tour is Andy Murray, and the Scot will face Benoit Paire in his first match at the Queen’s Club.
Paire has been very poor since the tour resumed last summer and represents one of the players Murray would have liked to have drawn. Matteo Berrettini, the top seed and tournament favorite at 5.95 / 1, expects the winner in round two and Murray would be the outsider against the Italian with a large serve.
Players like Jannik Sinner and Denis Shapovalov are in the lower half of the draw and it will be fascinating to see how the tournament progresses. Historical data suggests Queen’s is the fastest event on the entire tour, so theoretically there should be lots of tie breaks and tight, variance-heavy sets.
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