Ganna’s invincibility is now in doubt, writes Jack Houghton, who believes there are questions about all market leaders
« This is on the short side of Ganna’s ideal distance and while it would be no surprise to see him win especially in his home race, those odds are too slim to be of any value … »
A short individual time trial on a largely flat course around Turin. There will be little to challenge the drivers with long straight stretches preferred by the electricity traders. When the course crosses the river there are some corners roughly in the middle that need to be carefully navigated. Otherwise, this is a straightforward attempt. The fastest driver should win.
The fastest driver of all time was Filippo Ganna, who starts as the favorite with around 2,407 / 5. He won six out of seven in 2020 based on the promise he made in 2019. With that in mind, if someone had factored in this at the start of the season, Ganna would have had long chances. But this year his shape was shakier. He won time trials on the UAE Tour and Etoile de Bessèges, both in February, but has since lost three more, including two in the last Tour de Romandie.
This is on the short side of Ganna’s ideal distance, and despite it it would be no surprise to see him win, especially in his home race, those chances are too slim to be of any value.
Remi Cavagna (4,507 / 2) won when Ganna failed at the Tour de Romandie and is likely to bring the best form in the race against the clock. However, he wants a longer, tougher course to do his best and is also difficult to support.
As is Remco Evenepoel, whose chances have dropped to around 3.65 in the last few days at the time of writing. Evenepoel had Ganna’s only defeat last season in an individual time trial in the Vuelta a San Juan Internacional and is incredibly talented. But for reasons outlined in our Giro preview it is difficult to support him with certainty.
This makes Victor Campenaerts the best option for a value bet at 12.0011 / 1. Have the last two seasons not seen him at his peak. His only Paris-Nice time trial this year has been overwhelming at best, but if he could regain his 2019 form he would be hard to beat on a suitable track. Hopefully his commitment to allowing fans to warm up for the time trial on the Zwift virtual bike platform next to him won’t be a distraction, but either way it’s worth keeping the stakes small at this early point in the Giro.
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