The Canadian press
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The news that Canada could soon welcome fully vaccinated U.S. travelers comes as COVID-19 cases increase in some states south of the border, but infectious disease experts say the risk of vaccinated visitors is low.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced Thursday that Canada could reopen the border to fully vaccinated Americans by mid-August, with immunized travelers from around the world to follow by early September.
Dr. Sumon Chakrabarti, an infectious disease specialist in Mississauga, Ontario, said this was the next logical step in reopening plans and would mark a shift from efforts to eliminate the risk to those who mitigate it.
« The risk will not be zero … (but) we have to start making these adjustments to get back to normal, » he said. « We can’t stay on an interrupted animation with our closest neighbor. »
The US recorded more than 35,000 COVID-19 cases on Thursday, up from 12,000 daily cases a month ago. The country had an average of 250,000 cases in January before the vaccine rollout accelerated.
Fifty-five percent of Americans were at least partially vaccinated and 48 percent were fully vaccinated by Friday. Canada’s vaccination rate approached 70 percent of the total population, of which 47 percent were fully vaccinated.
A fully vaccinated person can still contract COVID-19, although this is rare and the disease is less severe when it occurs. While vaccinated people can still spread the virus, that risk is also « significantly reduced, » said Chakrabarti.
A recent study from the UK compared the prevalence among household contacts after vaccinated and unvaccinated family members contracted COVID-19. The study found that at least one dose reduced transmission to unvaccinated members by 40 to 50 percent.
Another pre-print study from Israel, which has yet to be reviewed by experts, suggests that vaccines are 88.5 percent effective against transmission.
« So it’s clearly not 100 percent, but (vaccination) (shortens) really the chain of transmission, » said Chakrabarti.
Nazeem Muhajarine, professor of epidemiology at the University of Saskatchewan, said that while spread from a fully vaccinated traveler would be rare, unvaccinated or partially vaccinated Canadians are susceptible, especially when visitors unwittingly introduce new variants of the virus.
Muhajarine, who is also one of the leaders of CoVaRR-Net, Canada’s research network on Concerning Variants, said a traveler’s country of origin should continue to be considered regardless of vaccination status. Visitors from Peru, for example, where the new lambda variant has taken root, could represent a higher risk.
« The fact that they are fully vaccinated is important information, » said Muhajarine. « But we also have to pay attention to the epidemiological scenario where they come from. »
Details of how screening might evolve if the border reopens were not released on Friday, and no mention was made of whether US visitors would be required to provide proof of vaccination. The White House has already ruled out the idea of a vaccination pass.
Details were also missing on whether Canada would maintain the negative test requirement for everyone entering the country.
Dr. Ilan Schwartz, Infectious Disease Researcher at the University of Alberta, expects the negative test rule to remain in place to move the risk from « extremely low to even lower ».
« But we’re already starting in a place where travelers are unlikely to import the virus into Canada, » he said.
Schwartz said Canada also needs to determine which vaccines it will accept in its definition of a « fully vaccinated » visitor.
Parts of the world, including Russia and China, use vaccines that are not approved by the World Health Organization and have « little or dubious public data, » Schwartz said. But being « too elitist » in vaccine qualification could raise ethical issues, he added.
Muhajarine said as more countries bar unvaccinated travelers from entering their borders, it could attract more people to get their vaccinations, which could increase vaccine intake in Canada and elsewhere.
But while Chakrabarti said restricting travel to fully vaccinated people makes sense, missing details in the rules could create confusion, especially with families hoping to travel with unvaccinated children.
« What happens if five family members are vaccinated and one is not? » said Chakrabarti. « There are many unknowns here and many unintended consequences this could lead to. »
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