A new research paper from the Federal Government’s Population Center shows that Australia is experiencing unprecedented interstate migration trends as a result of the pandemic.
Study by experts at the University of Queensland, entitled « Anticipating the Impact of COVID-19 on Internal Migration, » shows a decline in the number of people moving between states.
The population center has forecast that the number of intergovernmental people is expected to decrease by 12 percent in 2020-21. This is the lowest rate ever recorded.
The number of people moving around the country is expected to recover as the effects of COVID-19 wear off. Between 2023 and 2024, the level of interstate migration is expected to return to the 20-year average.
With net overseas migration effectively suspended, internal migration will be the main driver of changes in the population distribution of Australia.
The study also shows that an extraordinary reversal in migration patterns is expected in Melbourne and Victoria due to the extended lockdown.
More people are now expected to leave the state in Victoria when compared to other jurisdictions, although people typically move in.
For the first time in over a decade, there is evidence that people are leaving Victoria, and Melbourne in particular. . Most recent regional ABS migration data released in November showed Victoria recorded a net loss of people to other states in the June quarter for the first time since June 2008, and Melbourne a staggering 11 year-to-date. 000 people lost, ten times as many as left in the US the previous year.
Findings come from the first population statement released last month which found that in times of economic uncertainty, people are less likely to take an internal move, which is what we’ve seen in previous downturns.
The modeling shows that a 1 percent decrease in GDP per capita leads to a 1. Interstate migration rate decreased by 5 percent.
The modeling also shows that migration between capitals and regions reacts to changes in economic conditions, in particular the relative unemployment rate and relative property prices.
For example, the study shows that migration to the regions increases when the unemployment rate in capital cities increases compared to regional areas. It also shows that migration to the regions will decrease if real estate prices increase in regional areas compared to capital cities.
The population center predicts that in almost all states, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, a shift in internal migration patterns from the capital cities to regional areas can be expected in the short term.
Early data released by the ABS shows capital cities posted a net loss of $ 10 in the quarter through June 2020. 500 people in regional areas registered. This is the largest quarterly net loss in the regions ever recorded. This is more than double the average observed over the past 10 years.
However, projections show that as the economy recovers, capitals will recover at higher rates than regional areas, assuming that internal regional migration for each capital and each regional area in each state will be on the 10th Annual average returns.
The research paper is available at www. population. government. ouch. The center’s population declaration can be found at www. population. government. au / Statement and contains more detailed information on population projections for states, territories (page 60) and regions (page 71).
World News – AU – New research on the effects of COVID-19 on internal migration
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