Weltnachrichten – AU – Novak Djokovic is the tennis goat: A holistic argument

Sportico is proud to partner with The Harvard Sports Analysis Collective, a student-run organization dedicated to quantitative analysis of sports strategy and management, to bring our readers the excellent work done by the united of the brightest young people in the country. This piece was written by David Arkow.

We really live in an unprecedented era of men’s tennis and sport where arguably the three greatest players of all time are playing at the same time: Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic. Of the last 70 Grand Slams since Nadal’s first win (at Roland Garros in 2005), only nine have been won by players other than the Big 3: Andy Murray (3), Stan Wawrinka (3), Juan Martin del Potro (1)) , Marin Cilic (1) and Dominic Thiem (1).

This near-monopoly is extremely impressive when you consider that the structure of the tournaments means that the Big 3 often have to compete against each other in the draws. Their paths to Grand Slam victory are therefore much more difficult than the dominant players of previous generations, as they often have to go through one (or both) of the other two best players of all time to achieve it. Imagine if Nadal played in a different era and Federer and Djokovic never had to deal with him at the French Open – both probably have a lot more slam titles in their names. Additionally, at over 30 years of age, these three have been able to hold back the emerging competition and cement their reputation as the three greatest players of all time.

Even so, sports fans are not satisfied with simply calling each of the Big 3 “one of the best”. But unlike other ongoing GOAT disputes (like Michael Jordan versus LeBron James in basketball), the Big 3 are easier to compare because they are contemporaries. While the debate is not over, and time will tell, a recent holistic analysis of the Big 3 shows that Novak Djokovic is the greatest tennis player of all time.

Honorable Mentions: “Pistol” Pete Sampras, who has won 14 Grand Slams, is without a doubt the greatest American tennis player of all time. He is considered to be the predecessor of Federer, as they had similar playing styles: Both were grass field specialists, had big serves and one-handed backhand. But Sampras retired at the age of 31, leaving room for speculation as to whether he could have won more slams. Swedish “ice cream man” Björn Borg retired at an even younger age, winning 11 slams before leaving the sport at the age of 26. He won four French Open in a row and five Wimbledons in a row. Then there is the classic car favorite, Australian « rocket » Rod Laver, who won 11 slams but was not eligible for the six years before the Open Era (1963-1968) after turning pro. If Laver had been allowed to play 24 additional slams, who knows how many more he would have won? Laver is also the only player to have won the Grand Slam calendar (all four majors in one year), twice, in 1962 and 1969. Regardless of the circumstances, the Big 3 have completed more than 20 Grand Slams than this other trio of greats while facing tougher competition in the golden era of tennis.

When comparing the Big 3, most people often fall back on the traditional criteria of the Grand Slam title. According to this logic, Federer (20) and Nadal (20) would be tied before Djokovic (17). . However, this method is too easy as it doesn’t take age and finishes into account (hard court vs.. . Sound vs.. . Grass), head-to-head records, and other tournaments. A more comprehensive analysis requires examining a number of different metrics.

Roger Federer is about five years older than Nadal and Djokovic, so he is expected to have more Grand Slam titles. To model their career, I’ve graphed the number of slams each player has won by age:

Djokovic, a year younger than Nadal, started slowly, following his two rivals early in his career. But he has increased the pace in recent years and won 17 slams at the age of 32 – the same number that Federer and Nadal had at that age. In contrast to Djokovic’s late bloom, Federer was stuck between the ages of 30 and 34 at the age of 17, proving that he was the earliest to peak and is far in decline. He is unlikely to win another slam (especially since he missed the second half of the 2020 season due to his ongoing knee injury). . If Djokovic is able to maintain his trajectory, he will likely get past Federer in the next few years. Although Djokovic and Nadal follow similar trends, the latter is extremely reliant on one surface – clay.

Djokovic also had the highest top rated rating of the Big 3 (and by a decent margin) and currently has the highest rated rating. His peak at the age of 29 was also the last (likely because he went up against a Prime Federer and Prime Nadal) while Nadal peaked at 27 and Federer at 25, which is a good sign that the 33-year-old is Djokovic continues to be a front runner and will be a stronger contender at any slam for many years to come. He has a total of 300 weeks (and counted) in No.. 1 place, while Nadal lags behind with 209. Federer leads at 310 (and previously spent an impressive 237 consecutive weeks at No.. 1) is expected to be exceeded by Djokovic in 2021. Djokovic is known for his intense exercise regimen, strict nutrition plan, and tenacity. The fifth set in tennis is a good measure of a player’s physical and mental endurance, and Djokovic has a higher winning percentage in the fifth set of all time (76). 2%) than Federer (57. 4%) and Nadal (66). 7%). Djokovic is most competitive on all three surfaces too. All of these factors mean he is likely to accumulate more slams than Federer and Nadal, who are older, have longer injury histories and are less versatile.

The benefit of actual head-to-head data for the Big 3 is somewhat mitigated by the fact that they are not all the same age and peak at different times. At the beginning of Nadal and Djokovic’s careers, Federer already had more experience and won against them. Now that he’s older and they’re in better physical shape, Federer has seen his head-to-head numbers decline.

Another limitation is that their individual style of play makes them better suited to defeating certain opponents against others. Consider a baseball example: two-time Silver Slugger winner Anthony Rendon (a right-handed) has one . 171 career batting average against Jacob deGrom (right-handed) while Justin Bour (left-handed) has one . 364 career hit average against deGrom. This would suggest that Bour – who now plays in Japan – is a much better batsman than Rendon, but we know this is not true; deGrom is just a better matchup for a left-hander. Similarly, Federer’s style of play doesn’t suit Nadals well, as Nadal’s high left spin hits his one-handed backhand, which is difficult to handle – but he beats the rest of the ATP competition more than Nadal does.

In the division into individual fights, Djokovic proves his dominance over Nadal and Federer. While Djokovic has little advantage on this metric, further breakdown of her data set by surface shows more for history.

Most games are played on hard courts, followed by sand and grass. This suggests that hard-court excellence in determining the GOAT might be more valuable than playing well on other surfaces. In Big 3 matchups, Djokovic has the highest percentage of wins on both hard (62%) and grass (63%), while Nadal leads, as expected, on clay (78%). . Interestingly, Nadal is way behind Djokovic and Federer on both hard (34%) and grass (38%). .

It would be unfair to completely devalue Nadal’s dominance of clay, but it’s important to realize his overwhelming confidence in that surface. Especially when determining the greatest tennis player of all time, versatility on all surfaces should play a role. Thirteen of Nadal’s 20 Grand Slam titles have hit the clay (he has only lost twice in his career at the French Open), and with age, that partisanship has become even more one-sided. If most tournaments were played on clay it would definitely change the GOAT discussion, but that’s not the case. As a result, Nadal’s slam count could be inflated a bit by winning the French Open title.

There is no doubt that Nadal received the title of King (and the Goat) from Clay, but Djokovic appears to be the overall GOAT based on his all-round excellence and potential for even further growth. Clay is the most challenging surface (because seasons are longer due to longer rallies) and it put a lot of strain on Nadal’s body, as his injury-driven career can attest. In the meantime, Djokovic is still in his best physical shape and he still seems to be near his peak.

To predict the number of slams Djokovic is likely to win for the rest of his career, and to see if he can eventually beat Federer and Nadal’s grades, I’ve graphed the age distribution of slams for all players shown having at least five slam titles in the Open Era (this forms the basis for being a very good player among good competitors). From this graph I determined the « average maximum age » at which most slams were won (24), as well as the average age at which these players won their last slam (31). 5). From that I created a best-fit line for the decline in these players to see what percentage of the slams they lost in old age per year.

Using ESPN simulated probabilities for Djokovic to win every slam in the 2021 season, and the aging curve of the top Open Era players, I was able to determine how much his chances of winning every slam per year would decrease six years would go into the future. Given his late peak, versatility on the surface, fitness and lack of injury, Djokovic can be expected to be by the age of 39. Year of age (Federer’s current age) starts. . I then added up the total probabilities to see how many more slams Djokovic is likely to win: 4. 4, which would give him a 21 total career. 4th.

Even so, this method can underestimate Djokovic’s chances. Calculating the expected probability of winning for each tournament is very difficult as it depends on the 128 player draw, who is making progress on the draw, and more. It’s hard to predict future competition, especially among aspiring players like Dominic Thiem who may be more (or less) a threat than people expect. Also, if Nadal retires early, Djokovic will have an easier path to titles (especially at the French Open). . After all, this method uses data from previous players to predict how Djokovic will lose weight. However, modern players (Djokovic in particular) have access to improved training plans and injury prevention technology, so they’re likely to stay competitive longer than their predecessors. We have also already seen that Djokovic’s maximum age (29) is much later than the average of the other Grand Slam sizes (24). Perhaps his career could have an even longer tail if he kept his physical shape. As a result, Djokovic may have even higher chances than these predictions suggest.

On the other hand, unforeseen injuries could put Djokovic out of the way and accelerate his decline. Predicting the future is difficult, but even with this conservative estimate, Djokovic will likely overtake Federer in Grand Slam titles – and possibly Nadal as well.

Novak Djokovic has set victory records against both Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal, has held the longest peak, has the greatest versatility on the surface and is trending to overtake the other two in the Grand Slam title race. These are all factors that sports fans consider most important in crowning GOATs: head-to-head records or individual stats, longevity, peak performance, versatility and championships. Djokovic leads in almost all of these metrics. He may not have the grace of the Fed or Rafa’s torch, but Djoker will ultimately be the GOAT.

David Arkow (’24) is a major in economics and a member of the Harvard men’s tennis team.

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Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, tennis, Roger Federer, French Open, Andrey Rublev, Nitto ATP final, Grand Slam, Association of Tennis Professionals