The VSiN football analyst takes a look at the betting angles for the two games on Tuesday in the first leg of the UEFA Champions League round of 16.
Atletico Madrid are basically LeBron James on a quick break in the Champions League round of 16 . Since the 2013/14 season, Los Rojiblancos has scored 10 wins, three draws and zero defeats and has scored a total of two goals in 13 home games. In the club’s three draws, the games ended 0-0.
Atletico is currently on the three-way money line at BetMGM 175 and a pick-em on the goal line. If you want to get push protection with the goal line it will cost you a quarter (-125). Chelsea are 190 on the three-way and 105 on the goal line. The ML draw is 190 and the grand total is set at two – juiced at -115.
If you are unwilling to get involved in a sideline match or have legitimate concerns that Atletico’s home game is due to Spanish COVID-19 regulations is played in Bucharest and not in the Spanish capital, I recommend two alternative approaches to betting on this game, both with the sum.
If you are betting with a book that does not offer alternative sums, this game is ripe for live Bets. After 15 minutes of goalless play, the live total will almost certainly drop to 1.5. From there, you could bet with a little more confidence knowing that if the game lands on two you would avoid a push.
Alternatively, shopping at a book like DraftKings that offers alternative totals and yourself like me tends to under, a pizza money flyer looks pretty appealing at under 0.5 at 600 and under 1.5 at 170.
However, given Atletico’s outstanding history in the home games, I recommend going with Diego Simeone’s team at -125 the goal line.
If you had asked me about this game a week ago, I would have wholeheartedly recommended splitting a unit on the Bayern money line at -180 and scoring a goal for the same money. </ In the past few days, FC Bayern have lost points against relegation candidates Arminia and Bundesliga favorites Eintracht Frankfurt. As a result, the market for Bayern has moved from -180 to -135 at BetMGM.
On the buyback, Lazio is currently at 333 on their money line, with a tie of 300. If you prefer, half the goal with to score the runner-up in Group F, the line is currently 125. As for the O / U bettors are currently seeing a three-goal total that is -135 on the over.
Even after the bouts in Last week I would still lean on the side with Bayern, but would be looking for an approach to -140.
Lazio has enough attack strength in Ciro Immobile and Joaquin Correa to challenge Bayern’s high line and To score at least once, but I’m worried about an inexperienced defense against a Bayern team that scored three goals per game in the group stage.
In addition, FC Bayern have had three out of four wins since the 2014/15 season won against Italian opponents and perm Now lost all three points in the Champions League in the 2017/18 group stage.
An alternative bet that I think is a good value if you are betting on the East Coast markets is that Bayern win and both teams score with 185 points.
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