. . World news – CA – U. s. The economy faces an imminent test as bushfires raging due to the Coronavirus

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The precarious balance between the spread of the bushfire-like coronavirus in the United States and the still largely untested economy could be tested in the coming weeks if mandates of face masks and other lighter touch measures fail in Take control of the crisis.

Yo. s. COVID-19 infections are increasing by more than a million a week, according to data from the COVID-19 Tracking Project, and deaths are on the rise as well.. More than 252,000 people have died from the disease.

The escalating epidemic may have already slowed employment and is starting to cut retail spending on the cusp of the holiday shopping season, and JPMorgan analysts said on Friday that they now believe the economy may actually contract again at the start of the year due to government restrictions spread.

Instead of a “backwind” of growth as stores reopen over the summer, “the US is now facing headwinds of increased restrictions on activity. The holiday season – from Thanksgiving through New Years Eve – threatens to increase the number of cases. Analysts wrote, who expected growth of -1%. 0% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2021.

Some local governments are already taking tougher steps, as New York City has closed schools again. In a rare federal response from President Donald Trump’s « lame duck » administration, the United States. s. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention urged Americans not to travel for the Thanksgiving holiday next week, which usually sees tens of millions move..

Despite this, most states move very cautiously, restricting restaurant hours or seating capacity, but not shutting down unnecessary businesses as they did during the first months of U. s. Outbreak in the spring.

However, the increase in the number of cases appears to have culminated. s. Economic recovery, according to high-frequency data that economists are tracking for real-time clues about a recovery.

Hiring in a sample of mostly small businesses from the time management company Homebase Joinhomebase. Com / data is down for the fourth week, and shifts are down across industries, according to time management company UKG Here.

David Gilbertson, UKG Vice President, Strategies and Operations, said: “The uncertainty that is currently in place and has been in place since midsummer is making it really difficult for business owners to think about growth.”. “We seem to be taking a step forward, then a step back.

He said the decline in shifts from mid-October to mid-November likely indicates the weak jobs report in November.

Since the disastrous fall in employment in the spring, the economy has regained nearly half of the more than 20 million lost jobs. But momentum is slowing, and last week the number of new unemployment insurance claims rose for the first time in nearly a month.

Index of new job postings from the analytics firm Chmura www. chmuraecon. Com / blog as of August has reached 85% of the expected level in the absence of an epidemic, but now it is at 67%.

Anne Elizabeth Konkell, economist at Indeed.com, said workers could be in a « bleak » period. . hiringlab. org Hiring Lab, which remains a job vacancy index 13% below 2019 levels.. Holiday employment is largely complete, and unemployment benefits for many unemployed have been running out since the spring, a period that may finally affect national data.

Initially, the influx of government subsidies increased the incomes of many families and supported consumer spending. However, data on JPMorgan’s 30 million credit and debit card customers showed that spending fell « significantly » in early November from only Level 2.. 7% down from 2019 to 7. 4% less than a year ago, said economist Jesse Edgerton at JP Morgan.

The decline was steeper in places where COVID-19 was spreading more quickly but was still widespread, indicating a « broader decline in spending, » Edgerton wrote.. Yo. s. Retail sales in October also grew less than expected.

Edgerton points out that this and other data point to a clear drop in jobs in November versus October, and is evidence that the millions left without jobs due to the pandemic face a long way back to normal..

Gregory Daco, president of U, said the vaccine opportunities « represent a ray of light at the end of the tunnel. ». s. An economist at Oxford Economics. The Oxford Index is here to track the recovery slightly higher last week, halting a five-week slide, in a sign that the scale of the economic collapse seen in the spring is not imminent.

Data from OpenTable here showed a slight rise in the number of people sitting in restaurants over the past week even as new restrictions were imposed..

Some Federal Reserve officials have noted how companies, particularly in manufacturing, construction and some parts of the retail sector, have adapted to operating during the pandemic. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York rose here weekly which expects GDP to grow steadily since the recession began.

But the Oxford Index and other data also remained largely disrupted, well below pre-pandemic levels.. The data tracks mobile movement from Unacast here and Safegraph here, for example, it hasn’t shown any bullish trend since summer..

This may remain the case until vaccines have been rolled out to enough people to make a difference.

Meanwhile, Daco writes: « The recovery has become entrenched in low growth mode, and we are concerned about signs of lasting economic damage. ».

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Coronavirus, Lockdown, Donald Trump, Federal Reserve System