In the ONS study, it is estimated that roughly 70,000 people have Covid-19 and that about 6,000 people per day are getting the infection.
In a press briefing with chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance, Professor Chris Whitty suggested that a rise in hospital inpatient cases indicated the potential for an exponential increase in deaths if allowed to carry on unabated.
He said that since the start of September, inpatient cases were doubling at around the same rate as infections, every seven or eight days.
Figures released yesterday by Public Health England confirmed 418 new coronavirus cases in the North East, bringing the total number of coronavirus cases in the region to 20,347.
NHS England figures recorded six further coronavirus related death at North East hospital foundation trusts over the weekend. These included the deaths of two patients being treated by South Tyneside and Sunderland NHS Foundation Trust, the first recorded deaths since Sunday, June 21.
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Chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance has said that there is a possibility that small amounts of vaccine could be made available to certain groups of people by the end of the year.
He said there is “good progress being made” on developing a vaccine, adding: “Many vaccines now have shown they generate an immune response of a type that ought to be protective.
“We don’t yet know they will work but there is increasing evidence that is pointing in the right direction and it is possible that some vaccine could be available before the end of the year in small amounts for certain groups.
“Much more likely that we’ll see vaccines becoming available over the first half of next year, again not certain but pointed in the right direction, which then of course gives the possibility of a different approach to this virus.”
Professor Chris Whitty said there were four ways the virus could have a “significant effect” on the nation’s health if it got out of control.
Those included direct Covid-19 deaths and the risk of the NHS emergency services being “overwhelmed by a huge spike” – something that was prevented by the March lockdown.
The third way was the impact on the NHS if it had to spend “a large proportion of its effort in trying to treat Covid cases”, leading to reductions in other services and indirect deaths and illnesses.
“Ministers making decisions – and all of society – have to walk this very difficult balance.
“If we do too little, this virus will go out of control and you will get significant numbers of increased direct and indirect deaths.
“But if we go too far the other way, then we can cause damage to the economy which can feed through to unemployment, to poverty, to deprivation – all of which have long-term health effects so we need always to keep these two sides in mind.”
Professor Chris Whitty said: “You cannot in an epidemic just take your own risk, unfortunately you’re taking a risk on behalf of everybody else. It’s important that we see this as something we have to do collectively,” he said.
He said the four things to do are reducing individual risk by washing hands and using masks, quarantine measures, and investing in vaccines and drugs.
“The third one, and in many ways the most difficult, is that we have to break unnecessary links between households because that is the way in which this virus is transmitted,” he said.
“And this means reducing social contacts whether they are at work, and this is where we have enormous gratitude to all the businesses for example who have worked so hard to make their environments Covid-secure to reduce the risk, and also in social environments.
“This is a balance of risk between if we don’t do enough the virus will take off – and at the moment that is the path we’re clearly on – and if we do not change course we are going to find ourselves in a very difficult problem.”
Prof Whitty suggested that science would eventually “ride to our rescue” but “in this period of the next six months, I think we have to realise that we have to take this collectively, very seriously”.
He said there was “no evidence” that the virus was a milder strain than in April, instead suggesting that the rates had increased among younger adults who were less likely to develop a severe case of Covid-19.
“What we’ve seen in other countries, and are now clearly seeing here, is that they’re not staying just in the younger age groups, and moving up the age bands and the mortality rates will be similar to – slightly lower than they were previously – but they will be similar to what we saw previously.”
He said mortality rates from Covid-19 were “significantly greater” than seasonal flu, which killed around 7,000 annually or 20,000 in a bad year.
“This virus is more virulent than flu so the numbers people talk about are not unreasonable numbers for us to be thinking about,” he said, and while treatment was better it could not take mortality down to “trivial” levels.
Prof Whitty said: » I think everybody realises that at this point the seasons are against us.
« We’re now going into the seasons, late autumn and winter, which benefit respiratory viruses and it is very likely they will benefit Covid as they do for example flu.
“We should see this as a six month problem that we have to deal with collectively. It’s not indefinite.”
Prof Chris Whitty suggested that a rise in hospital inpatient cases indicated the potential for an exponential increase in deaths if allowed to carry on unabated.
He said that since the start of September, inpatient cases were doubling at around the same rate as infections, every seven or eight days.
“Now what that tells us is that if this carried on unabated – these numbers are relatively small, we’re talking about around 200 at the moment – but if this continued along the path that Patrick laid out, the number of deaths directly from Covid… will continue to rise, potentially on an exponential curve, that means doubling and doubling and doubling again.
“And you can quickly move from really quite small numbers to really very large numbers because of that exponential process.
Chief medical officer Professor Chris Whitty told a press briefing there was now “significant rates of transmission” of coronavirus in parts of the UK.
Referring to a presentation slide looking at the growth of Covid-19 outbreaks, he said: “What we’ve seen is a progression where, after the remarkable efforts which got the rates right down across the country, first we saw very small outbreaks, maybe associated with a workplace or another environment, then we’ve seen more localised outbreaks which have got larger over time, particularity in the cities.
“And now what we’re seeing is a rate of increase across the great majority of the country.
“And what we’ve found is, as we go through in time, anywhere that was falling is now moving over to beginning to rise and then the rate of rise continues in an upwards direction.
Sir Patrick Vallance said the size of the UK population with antibodies was still low, making the “vast majority” of people “susceptible” to Covid-19.
Antibodies were not an “absolute protection” either, he said, with the immunity to the illness fading over time.
Speaking at the briefing, Sir Patrick said: “What we see is that something under 8% of the population have been infected as we measure the antibodies.
“It means the vast majority of us are not protected in any way and are susceptible to this disease.”
He said antibodies in city populations was a “little higher” and that as many as 17% of people in London could have them, making the spread slower in those areas.
Sir Vallance warned that there could be 50,000 coronavirus cases per day next month if the rate of the disease’s spread is not brought down.
“At the moment we think the epidemic is doubling roughly every seven days,” he said. “If, and that’s quite a big if, but if that continues unabated and this grows doubling every seven days… if that continued you would end up with something like 50,000 cases in the middle of October per day. “50,000 cases per day would be expected to lead a month later, so the middle of November say, to 200-plus deaths per day.
“The challenge therefore is to make sure the doubling time does not stay at seven days. “There are already things in place which are expected to slow that, and to make sure that we do not enter this exponential growth and end up with the problems that you would predict as a result of that.
“That requires speed, it requires action and it requires and it requires enough in order to be able to bring that down.”
Sir Vallance added: « In the ONS study, it is estimated that roughly 70,000 people have Covid infection and that about 6,000 people per day are getting the infection.
« So we are in a situation when numbers are clearly increasing. They’re increasing across all age groups. It’s a little bit different in different areas – in terms of geography. This increase in numbers is also translating to an increase in hospitalisation.
“There is no doubt we are in a situation where the numbers are increasing. What I’d like to do is just remind you how quickly this can move.”
If doubling occurs every seven days, it is predicted there would be 49,000 new cases on October 13 if the doubling time stays at seven days.
Showing slides of statistics from France and Spain, Sir Patrick Vallance said: « There’s been an increases in cases across all ages groups. The lowest has been in children and the population between 70 and 79 but in every age group there has been an increase.
“Could that increase be due an increase in testing – the answer is no. We see an increase in the positivity of the test done so we see the proportion of people testing positive has increased even if testing stays flat.”
Matt Hancock suggested that any new restrictions would focus on social settings rather than schools or the workplace.
The Health Secretary told ITV’s This Morning he wanted to avoid school closures: “The evidence is … schools aren’t where a lot of the transmission happens, it’s more about people socialising.”
He pointed out that there were already parts of the country where “there are measures in place to say that you shouldn’t socialise with people outside your household”.
Measures such as these are currently in place in areas of the North East including Sunderland, South Tyneside, County Durham, Newcastle, North Tyneside, Gateshead and Northumberland.
Matt Hancock was unable to say whether England’s pubs would be allowed to open this weekend as the Government prepared extra measures to curb the spread of coronavirus.
On ITV’s This Morning, Health Secretary Mr Hancock was asked whether landlords would be told to shut this weekend.
“We will be absolutely clear about the changes we need to make in the very, very near future,” Mr Hancock said.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson is expected to address the nation on Tuesday amid mounting concern about the rise in the number of Covid-19 cases.
Mr Hancock said his answer on pubs was “not a no, and it’s not a yes”, adding: “We have been working on this all weekend, we haven’t taken the final decisions about what we need to do in response to the surge that we have seen in the last few weeks.”
The Health Secretary spoke to Mr Johnson on Monday morning and added: “He is as worried as we all are about the rise in the number of cases and we have to make a final decision about what’s the best response to that.”
People in England who refuse an order to self-isolate will face fines of up to £10,000, the Government has warned amid deepening concern at the sharp upsurge in coronavirus infections.
In a significant toughening up of the regulations, ministers will impose a new legal duty on people to self-isolate if they test positive for the disease or are told to do so by NHS Test and Trace after coming into contact with someone with the virus.
Those on lower incomes who face a loss of earnings as a result of going into quarantine will be eligible for a one-off support payment of £500 to help them cope financially.
Transport Secretary Grant Shapps said that Prime Minister Boris Johnson will set out the next steps in tackling the pandemic after England’s chief medical officer and chief scientific adviser have held a press conference.
When asked why the Prime Minister was not going to be part of their public address, Mr Shapps added: “What he wants to do, quite rightly, is allow without politicians there, to allow scientists to set out the picture to the country.
