A tactical analysis of how the Bluebirds like to play and what the Robins can do to beat them in tonight’s Championship meeting
Last season’s Severnside Derbies both ended in a 1-0 win for the away team and both, somewhat oddly, saw the losing manager get the sack
I’m pretty confident it’s not on the agenda this time around, but both clubs will be greatly relieved to have won on Tuesday to end their respective winless races before this game and the next international break
Cardiff has made a slow start to the season after making the play-offs last time, winning just three of their first 10 league games and ending up well down the table in 13th place City, having won 2-1 in Huddersfield, returned to seventh place
The Bluebirds are led by Neil Harris, 43, former Millwall forward As a player he was a Lions legend, scoring over 120 goals in two spells between 1998 and 2011 Harris was diagnosed with testicular cancer in 2001, but after struggling during treatment, got the go-ahead a year later and continued to hit goals afterward
He took over the Under-21s at New Den in 2011 and made several stints as a goalie before finally securing the full-time job in 2015 as they resumed their lives in League One
Harris led them to the play-offs in his first full season, but they lost to Barnsley He didn’t miss the second time though, as Millwall beat Scunthorpe to get a promotion
Harris resigned from Millwall in October 2019, but with Warnock’s sacking a month later he was nominated by Cardiff.After a good end to the season his Bluebirds finished fifth to secure a play-off berth, but Fulham beat them in two-legged semi-final
Harris hasn’t deviated from his 4-2-3-1 starting lineup we saw last season in the 1-0 win at Ashton Gate in July It’s until Tuesday against Barnsley where they won 3-0
In the previous game against QPR, we can see the four full-backs, two defensive midfielders filtering / protecting the center-backs, then three forward midfielders to team up at the center-forward
Harris made a halftime change last Saturday with Cardiff 2-0, bringing in Junior Hoilett for Will Vaulks, and replacing Joe Ralls to play alongside Marlon Pack Ralls scored twice to level the playing field , but QPR scored late for the win Lee Tomlin also replaced Josh Murphy
However, on Tuesday he went against his standard system and changed it to a traditional 4-4-2 just to keep us all on our toes.
I wonder if this was a reaction to a bad run or a specific tactic to play above Barnsley’s frenzied Gegenpress by showcasing the Robert Glatzel physique alongside Kieffer Moore
Dean Holden will be left in doubt and there could be some late tactical adjustments when the team sheets are revealed The other reason could be Harris’s response to some defensive form issues that I’ll cover later
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Watching Cardiff play, it’s easy to get drawn into thinking this will be a typical straightforward team, but there doesn’t seem to be any dependence on them.They aren’t a passing / possession team, but they are not long bale merchants either
If we compare the numbers, they have actually managed fewer long passes this season than City (522 vs. 561) and fewer assists overall (3,076 – 16 Of which 9% were long vs. 3,594-156%) However, they’re good at it, 598% find their target (494% for city) This success means they can get possession higher up the pitch through knockdowns and stray balls
At the other end of the pitch, Sean Morrison and Curtis Nelson often dominate in the air and Cardiff leads the championship in percentage of aerial duels won (553%) and defend the fifth aerial challenges (behind Rotherham, Millwall, Wycombe and Stoke
I think teams need to be smart and find different ways to attack them (we’ll talk about that later)
Not a reference to Billy Idol’s « Rebel Yell » but Kieffer Moore’s abilities up front At 6.5 inches he is very good in the air, but he is an integral part of their arsenal with his willingness to manage the chains too They are not too dependent to aim it in the air on every occasion
We can see a tendency for Moore to favor the right side channel when he receives balls played in the Cardiff half of the field, and this is also where he is most successful
Earlier this season, Nottingham Forest stopped challenging him in the air and focused on recovering from nods and stray balls A dangerous tactic as Moore is able to drop the ball himself and put the midfielder on the line
Once Cardiff establishes possession above the halfway line, Moore becomes the target of diagonal balls in the box or crosses
In the above situation Cardiff have gained some good possession in the QPR half-field QPR is in decent defensive form, but Cardiff knows the game plan and Moore is the target He’s already trying to take off the back of Yoann Barbet from QPR
Cardiff’s forward players (circled) are on the move, they expect Moore to win the header Barbet decides to handle the ball and give a pretty stupid penalty City can expect at this angle of Friday night attack
The Bluebirds are also happy to put the ball into the box from more forward positions
Here we see Cardiff squeeze Derby in their own third where Will Vaulks (6) crosses an area Cardiff will flood the penalty area where they can, their players are proactive when they see a ball hitting in the air On this occasion, it is Moore who goes to the end but the head wide
They are a very different Cardiff side in terms of defensive discipline.I’m used to seeing both defensive midfielders leaving no space for forwards to receive passes in the feet, but they are also very good at prevent the opposition from breaking the lines
However, this season I have seen the two center-backs exposed more than I have ever seen. This is something the city needs to exploit
In the example above, his very good pair movement by Martyn Waghorn (9) and Kamil Jozwiak (7); Waghorn comes short, Jozwiak hangs over Nelson But as Jozwiak comes short, Waghorn runs forward to worry Nelson about the space behind him so he stays where he is
There is also no pressure on the passer (Moore arrives well after the pass) and Jozwiak gets the ball unmarked and turns towards the goal We see the Cardiff midfielders realizing that they are now on the wrong side
It’s starting to become a recurring theme and I wonder if both defensive midfielders are abandoned by the three ahead of them?
While Cardiff’s four full-backs and midfielders look in decent defensive form as QPR plays a long ball forward in the final few minutes, we see the midfielder three showing no real interest in where Morrison’s head might land
Pack got caught looking at the header and Dominic Ball (red circle) anticipates the ball might fall into the gap He guesses right, runs away from Pack and hits a 25-yard volley for the winner
A different game, a different example, but the same result, even with the new 4-4-2 Pack and Vaulks allow the Barnsley player to run away to their blind side to create a passing chance Lots of scoring , not enough marking
Here’s another Derby gets a 4v4 break, but check out the space the Rams player has and the options available.I just don’t used to seeing the Cardiff midfielder running towards them own goal, they are normally so well placed and make sure to face the opposition who can then only play in front of them
And for good measure, here’s one more, against Preston An obvious problem, but it’s up to City to find a way to put players like Jamie Paterson in the pockets between the lines
Until the system changed on Tuesday Cardiff had a wealth of talent in attacking midfielders. Maybe their first instinct is to attack rather than support both of their defensive midfielders?
You can see why when you see names like Lee Tomlin (now injured), Sheyi Ojo, Junior Hoilett, Joe Ralls, Josh Murphy and recent loan signing Harry Wilson from Liverpool
With little pressure on Pack in the center circle, he can pick Sheyi Ojo with a pass between the lines The Derby midfielder is also not doing himself a favor
Ojo receives the pass, turns to the goal where Moore makes a run to Christie’s Pukki and gets under the goalie for a goal
In the following example, some pretty simple instructions for City – don’t give Harry Wilson time to shoot around the box
A simple but quick two-pass movement from the right wing, inside then to Wilson, who maneuvers the ball off his trusty left stake and hits the ball in the upper right corner
Against Huddersfield on Tuesday City gave the Terriers a little too much time around the box, but only Pipa was ready to shoot I would suggest that if City do the same with Wilson on Friday Dan Bentley will likely be a busy man
Cardiff will be a threat from turns and free kicks with Morrison and Moore, plus Robert Glatzel if he starts.I’m glad they decided to let Callum Paterson go to Sheffield Wednesday (and Aden Flint) as he always was an additional physical presence to face
Although the above free kick is aimed at a danger zone, it should be noted that Moore is not the target He is located to the right, but I guess he does so to keep one of the better defenders away. of Barnsley from the intended landing zone to give Morrison a better chance of winning the ball Just something to watch out for
GK: Alex Smithies (30) – Former Huddersfield man who joined in summer 2018 for £ 3.5m A very good record of penalty stops throughout his career Very agile
RB: Leandro Bacuna (29) – Dutch Under-21 international, who traded international allegiance and plays for Curaçao The former Villa and Groningen midfielder, who is a very good player, can do everything but is also prone to hard times Juninho Bacuna’s brother at Huddersfield and has the last two games at right-back
LB: Joe Bennett (30) – Started at Boro, before moving to Villa, Brighton and on loan at Bournemouth and Wednesday A regular left-back who has only missed two league games this season and a good passer from the back
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CB: Sean Morrison (29) – Physical center-back who rose through the ranks after starting at Plymouth and then Swindon Had a great time at Huddersfield and Reading before arriving at Cardiff in August 2014 A key part of the winning side promotion too
CB: Curtis Nelson (27) – Solid center-back whom I remember from his days in Plymouth where he looked like a good prospect No wonder he plays at this level and seems to have firmly cemented his place alongside Morrison, having ousted Flint last season
CM: Joe Ralls (27) – Started in the Cardiff youth setup and an underrated part of this current squad Left-footed player with three goals this season, with a couple from the spot Will be the player who stands will break guts to pick up loose balls and nod in our midfield and leap forward from there
CM: Marlon Pack (29) – A player we didn’t expect to see signing for the Bluebirds last season He’s had six really progressive seasons at The Gate, and while he’s had good reviews at the initially, I’m not sure he was as effective in the blue shirt as he was in the red
It’s possible, Pack’s competition may come from Will Vaulks (27) – a former Rotherham man who did very well under Harris not having had much of a look under Warnock who signed him, then brought Pack
ACM: Harry Wilson (23) – Loaned from Liverpool with a hammer left-footed Welsh international who has had loans at Crewe, Hull, Derby and Bournemouth and good records at each Definitely need to close it around our penalty area
RW: Sheyi Ojo (23) – Another Liverpool loaner with the ability to carry the ball into dangerous areas Makes a good impact in South Wales after spending last season at Glasgow Rangers Also had loans to Wolves, Fulham, Wigan and Reims
LW: Junior Hoilett (30) – Canadian international who has had a very good career, with 150 games in the Premier League and in the Championship Skillful wide man who likes to cut his right foot and shoot in shots Can change a game and, in my opinion is one of the best players at this level
Additionally, Josh Murphy (25) – a £ 10million signing from Norwich in the summer of 2018 when Cardiff was promoted to brother of Newcastle winger Jacob Murphy
CF: Kieffer Moore (28) – Another Welsh international who fought in the lower leagues before making a name for himself in Wigan, prompting Cardiff to leave this summer Started in Truro City before moving to play for Dorchester, Yeovil, Viking (Norway), Forest Green, Ipswich and Barnsley My dangerman
If Harris retains his 4-4-2, he will use Robert Glatzel (26) as his second striker – the £ 5million signing from FC Heidenheim last summer; the great German has not made the expected impact, but seems more settled since the return of Covid last season
Both teams will appreciate their chances after the midweek wins, but I see City coming back to Severn Bridge with a Cardiff City 1-1 Bristol City point
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World News – UK – What Bristol City can expect from Cardiff with major threats by Moore and Wilson