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Tomorrow morning, two top BBL competitors will meet in a perfectly balanced game. Paul Krishnamurty expects big sums from both sides …
« Scorchers have just shown how to win at The Optus. Bat first, hit 180. The last eight times 174 were made in the first innings, it was defended »
When previewing this game on the latest episode of Cricket … Just Bettor, my first reaction was « terrible game to call ». The team I supported for the title versus the team I’m most likely to win. When the bets opened, Hurricanes were clear favorites, but the market has improved since then.
The first cricket … only Bettor from 2021 is here! On the show, @cricketbetting and @sampsoncollins talk to @EdmundBayliss and @paulmotty about England’s Sri Lanka tour and Thursday’s action in # BBL10. Can you bring your profitable tip form to the new one? Year?
Right from my point of view. Sydney Thunder should by no means be an outsider to anyone. They finished strong last season, winning five games on spin before losing to Heat the last time.
That loss was instantly forgiven. They had a huge first hit disadvantage and definitely had the highest first innings in their last 13 games at The Gabba.
World class explosive opener. A strong medium-sized company with all-rounders who fit perfectly with T20, like Daniel Sams and Chris Green. Plus bowlers like Sams and Tanveer Sangha.
The points table shows that hurricanes have not yet reached the same standard, but similar comments apply about equilibrium. Without James Faulkner, they’re not that strong in the all-rounder division, but on the flip side, they probably have more match winners.
Hobart was always expected to improve and players become available as the tournament progressed . Solid since his arrival, Dawid Malan has been one of the most reliable batsmen in the world of T20 cricket. Sandeep Lamichhane can roll matches.
Again, a defeat last time is completely forgivable, as Marcus Stoinis was hit from his most explosive side. Hitting 173 chases was no shame and Ben McDermott struck again at 91.
I can’t think of a more predictable floor than Optus Stadium in Perth. Of the last 14 first innings here, nine ended between 174 and 185.
Scorchers have just shown how to win at The Optus. Bat first, hit 180. The last eight times 174 was made in the first innings, it was defended. Anything else is probably not enough.
There are even bigger sums available here – the most recent numbers include a 213 and a 196. Both sides have the power to get there, so I expect a high score game.
Consider this trading tactic. In the #OddsOnThat section, Evens is available when both sides reach 160, 15/8, 170, 7/2, 180 or more.
I assume the Par 1st Innings Runs line starts between 170 and 175 and that number is reached. 3.02 / 1 over 180 plus would work but I doubt the odds will start that high.
Instead, roll back one of these specials and look back after the first innings. For example, take 15/8 if both hit 170. If 180 is the next target, I would expect a chase of 6/5 or 2.26 / 5.
At this stage I would put the pursuers on 180 at 2.26 / 5, making a total profit from the two Guarantee bets together, while I would potentially win both if the pursuers hit between 170 and 179
However, for the sake of clarity of the betting system, I only recommend the first bet at 15/8.
D’Arcy Short is increased to 3/1, but remains a bad number for Top Hurricanes runscorers. He hasn’t reached double digits five times this season. Both McDermott and Malan are very favored at 3/1. Especially the constantly overpriced latter.
The other #OddsBoosts are 3/1 for Alex Hales to get the highest score for Thunder, plus 11/4 and 7/2, respectively, because Daniel Sams and Riley Meredith for their teams are clear top wicket takers.
Finally a little interest in Man of the Match. I think it’s more likely to go to a batsman, but 25/1 over Tanveer Sangha – the joint second highest wicket taker in the tournament – is just too big.
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