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This feels like a trappy line and could be a public one too, but I like the spot and will support it. I bet this is -3 earlier in the week, but I think it is okay to go below -4. Miami is brand new, winning and covering five games in a row. Tua Tagovailoa was fine but this is more about Miami’s dominant defense. When I face an offense in Denver that Drew Lock may not be present on Sunday, I can’t see the Broncos scoring many points in that game. Denver hasn’t covered three of its last four and is only 1-3 at home. I don’t hate playing in this game as my analysis seems to be pointing in that direction, but I’m more comfortable with Miami’s matchup odds on the field getting a convincing win.
I have locked KC -6. 5 before COVID-19 concern for the Raiders, but when the bodies are ruled for Vegas I think that line could come back a little. So wait until Sunday and hope there is a touchdown. As for analysis, I don’t care how good we think the Raiders are this season, everything points to the Chiefs. Kansas City may have been a bit shaky, but we know how dominant Andy Reid was in his parting career. The Chiefs were also spectacular on the road in Reid’s division, scoring 14-3 ATS in their last 17 road games at AFC West. This is generally where the Chiefs gain momentum in the season – last year they played the Farewell Raiders and got a 31-point win. That win sparked an 8-0 and ATS ran all the way through the Super Bowl. I expect similar motivation this time around, especially given the Chiefs’ only loss this season to the Raiders at home. Time for vengeance.
This will probably be my biggest game of the week, provided Harris is in it – the Pats list him as questionable with multiple injuries every week, but he’s usually fine. Why I want to support Harris is because he has posted three 100 yard games since retiring from the IR and beat 63. 5 yards in three consecutive games – an average of 98 yards over that time. He hit a season high of 22 runs and 121 yards during his tenth week 10 win over the Ravens and should be locked up in Houston for another massive workload. Why do we want to fade the Houston Run Defense? Well, it’s as bad as it gets. The Texans are the last dead in Run Defense in the NFL and allow 167. 4 meters per game. Last week in Cleveland, that defense allowed both Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt to play 100-yard play. At the start of the season, Derrick Henry allowed a 200-yard game. With a modest number like 63. 5, mash that over.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and also an avid fan and user (my username is jedlow) and I sometimes play on my personal account in the games I give advice on. While I have provided my personal opinion on the above games and strategies, they do not necessarily reflect the view (s) of DraftKings, and I may use different players and strategies than recommended above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to non-public information.
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