World news – US – First day of fall: What Michigan’s autumn forecast looks like


Today we have entered into both definitions of fall. Astronomical fall started today at 9:30 a.m. Meteorological fall started three weeks ago on September 1.

The long-range forecast experts reside at the Climate Prediction Center. I think that is a bad name for forecasters issuing up to a few months forecast. If you think they are also the group that forecasts out years in advance, you might be skeptical. They do a good job at forecasting out a few months.

The general consensus from various forecast time periods is a warmer than normal fall and not a soaking fall.

Let’s break it down. The forecast below is for the first two weeks of October. The long-range experts pretty strongly feel early October is going to be warmer than normal. I do want to warn you a warm fall forecast doesn’t mean every day will be warmer than normal. Also remember the normal temperature is dropping one degree every three days. So eventually even “warmer than normal” is cool.

We do have a cold snap coming early next week, but should let up by the end of next week.

The precipitation forecast below calls for drier than normal conditions during the first two weeks of October.

The forecasts below are for a three month time period of October, November and December. The rest of fall is forecast to be warmer than average, although not with a real large deviation from normal. This means we will have an occasional cold snap.

Once we get out into the longer three month period for precipitation, the forecast doesn’t lean toward too wet or too dry.

The main theme in this fall forecast is somewhat warmer than normal, and probably not a big soaked fall.

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