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Regardless of the odds of winning, this game will be surprisingly close. Chivas will be missing some key figures this weekend, and Necaxa is in surprisingly good shape.
It will be a close game that could go either way, but in the end it should be Chivas’ more talented squad who leave Estadio Akron with a playoff win this Liga MX weekend.
Similar to Saturday’s other Liga MX playoff game between Santos Laguna and Pachuca, the following game between Chivas and Necaxa should be a highly competitive affair.
Despite the fact that Chivas should have had a sizable advantage, the fact that the Guadalajara club will be lacking key attacking players should close matters. Necaxa, who finished the regular season with five straight wins, shouldn’t be taken lightly either after looking like one of the worst teams in the Liga MX.
Unfortunately, Necaxa need a lot more help than swing, and their opponents have had some absences. While Necaxa will make things interesting, there are still more question marks than Chivas.
Even after five wins in the last five games, Necaxa’s goal scoring at the end of the regular season was pretty average at best. With 16 goals in 17 games, only two other teams in Liga MX have scored fewer goals than Necaxa this season.
With an xG number (expected goals) of only 17. 97, Necaxa has the third worst xG rating in the league.
Due to injuries, Chivas will start the weekend without striker Jose Juan Macias and winger Alexis Vega. Both young Mexicans, who regularly make the starting XI, have become part of a core group of players who brought Chivas into the playoffs.
Winger Uriel Antuna, arguably Chivas’ best player and one of the league’s best this season, will come into play with two goals and two assists in his last four games in Liga MX. Elsewhere in the attack, Jesus Ricardo Angulo, Isaac Brizuela, and Angel Zaldivar have the ability to not only compensate for the absence of their teammates, but to surpass and surpass anything Necaxa throws at them.
Much has been made of their five game winning streak, but let’s take a look at who those wins were against. If we look at the final ranking of the regular season, Necaxa has won victories over # 16 Atlas, # 15 Tijuana, # 17 Queretaro, # 11 Toluca and # 9 Pachuca. It’s also worth noting that Pachuca missed a handful of players in their 1-0 loss to Necaxa due to positive COVID-19 cases.
Sure, they can only beat what is on their schedule, but these wins don’t say much about Necaxa other than beating weak teams.
Chivas, at number 8, is vastly superior to some of the clubs Necaxa has faced. That will be a much tougher test for Necaxa and while they should get closer, it will be Chivas who will steal the win and a place in the next round of the playoffs.
The freelance writer Cesar Hernandez is a specialist in American and Mexican football. He has written for ESPN FC, The Athletic, The Guardian, FourFourTwo, VICE Sports, and several other publications. In addition to writing and previous radio appearances on the BBC, talkSPORT and SiriusXM FC, Cesar is also a member of the Mexican Soccer Show podcast.
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C. . D.. . Guadalajara, Club Necaxa, Liga MX, Playoffs, Uriel Antuna
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